How would manned space exploration fare during a severe economic downturn? Say, something on the order of a deep recession or possibly an economic depression? Would ISS be slashed? Moon return flights? If taxpayers are out of work and not paying taxes, then what?

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We've had recessions including some pretty deep ones since NASA was founded and the agency was still funded. A true depression would likely be different unless Congress saw it as a jobs program for engineers.

I am in favor of giving certain government agencys (like NASA) a percentage of revenues received. When Americans and the companys they work for earn less then NASA gets less. Spend it where they get the most return.

IMO boots on the Moon gives us far less return than a new rover on Mars would.

Trying to predict the decisions of politicians is like trying to guess the weather-- only good for a day or two in advance, and not always even that.

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... And the weather doesn't change just because a vocal special interest group didn't like the forecast.

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Following the break up of the USSR and the economic crisis of the mid 90'ss human space flight was one of the few areas of space activity the Russians did not drastically cut.

Jon

Based on what evidence and reasoning?

Jon

I think it's hard to predict. On one hand, if a lot of people were out of work, they would probably demand cuts in the space program. But on the other hand, you never know, a charismatic politician might come by saying, we have to have dreams and be optimistic about the future, and people might support that.

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you mean like a modern day JFK?

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They still lofted shuttles during the 91 Recession, and these new launches are going to be about 20% or so of the cost of a shuttle launch (assuming inevitable overruns because of NASA's bad habit of underestimating costs).

Besides, you have to ask what would be worse? Continuing to spend money keeping a 100 billion dollar investment functional, or going before the American public and basically admitting that you'd wasted a hundred billion, and lets not forget, we are 1) not the only partner in the station, and 2) not going to be capable of ferrying personnel up there for a few years.

Return to Moon flights aren't going to happen for another decade or more at the earliest, and the hardware under development currently isn't part of that particular phase of operations, so its not even being thought about right now. A recession in ten years, then you've got worries about Return to Moon flights being axed.

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NASA moon, Mars vision not getting funded

WASHINGTON - An ambitious vision to take people to the moon and Mars may fall apart before it even gets off the ground because of uncertain planning and inadequate funding, several experts said on Thursday.

A congressional report said NASA's replacement for the space shuttle, the Constellation Program, is in jeopardy, and members of Congress as well as at least one former astronaut agreed at a hearing on the issue.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office said the Constellation program, scheduled to begin by 2015, is troubled by engineering, funding and mechanical issues.

Both the planned Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle and the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle are in danger, according to the report from the investigative arm of Congress.

"If something goes wrong with the development of the Ares I or the Orion, the entire Constellation Program could be thrown off course and the return to human spaceflight delayed," the report reads.

It noted that existing test facilities are insufficient for testing Ares I's new engine, including troublesome vibrations. Both vehicles also have had "weight issues," the report said.

"All these unknowns, as well as others, leave NASA in the position of being unable to provide firm cost estimates for the projects at this point," it reads.

Earlier this week, U.S. space agency officials told Congress that between 5,800 and 7,300 jobs would go over the next three years as the space shuttles are retired, most at the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral, Florida. The shuttles are scheduled to be grounded by 2010.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23955590

Let's face it. If bean counters had their way, there'd be no R&D. Way too chancy and unpredictable regarding ROI.

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i doubt a modern JFK could do that, i think more like a modern Hitler

We have discussed this article elsewhere, so what is your take on the subject as it relates to economic downturns?

I see no evidence in the article that the issue has anything to do with the state of the economy because there doesn't seem to be any relationship between funding and economic indicators. The budget is what it is.

This is a matter of optimistic estimating, normal and unexpected cost overruns, and new data on technical issues.

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"All these unknowns, as well as others, leave NASA in the position of being unable to provide firm cost estimates for the projects at this point," it reads.

Firm cost estimates on large government projects are often fiction. They put foreward low-ball estimates to get the project started and then use the argument, "But we've already spent $xx so we can't quit now" to keep it going. How many government projects get cancelled for busting their budget. This isn't limited to high-tech projects, either. Case in point: Boston's Big Dig.

Considering there are many types of estimates, and these kinds of project usually include many of each type rolled into one, it's easy to see how it happens.

Government is not alone. Business does the same thing. When we put together projects for approval, it is well understood that the numbers put together are for ideal conditions.

One thing that we do have in our proposals is a risk section. Here's what could happen, the likelyhood that it can happen, and the unknowns that can impact the project. This section has no value applied to it, but it lets the upper management get a feel for how much it might actually cost.

Most people are familiar with "firm" or "not-to-exceed" estimates. Those are the ones that have value applied (and hidden) to the risk section.

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True, but nothing compares to government for the sheer magnitude of costing errors. Back in the 1980s, I was on the receiving end of a satellite operations system developed by IBM. It was bid as an $80 million open-ended project. Years late and $800 million later, we finally received a system to do satellite operations. It was a buggy mess but what's a 1000% overrun between friends? There are other examples of government projects that run several hundred percent over budget, and the Big Dig proves it isn't limited to high tech or military programs. Corporations can and do experience overruns but they seldom let things get so far out of hand before either restructuring the project or killing it. I do know of some DoD projects that were killed for going over budget but the number is very small.