Next Solar Max Will Be a Big One

Fraser · #1 (**permalink**) 14-March-2006, 04:58 AM

SUMMARY: We've now reached the Sun's solar minimum; there's not a sunspot anywhere across the surface of our closest star. Give it a few years, though, and it should be anything but quiet. Solar researchers think they understand the long term cycles of solar activity, and they're predicting that the next Solar Maximum - expected to arrive between 2010 and 2012 - will be the strongest in 50 years.

View full article
What do you think about this story? post your comments below.

Dennis Helander · #2 (**permalink**) 16-March-2006, 02:21 AM

Ice ages were caused by decreased solar activity. I wonder if global warming caused more by increased solor activity than by carbon dioxide. Any one have an opinion?

Melusine · #3 (**permalink**) 20-March-2006, 05:36 AM

In a related article about this here. Oh no, Mr. Bill, we're going to be zapped! Seriously, it could be a huge inconvenience and will be very interesting, to say the least.

Quote:

The cycle's victims could include space satellites. The coming storms could heat the upper levels of Earth's atmosphere, causing it to expand and exert drag on low-flying satellites -- perhaps enough drag to tug some of them back to Earth. Solar storms have been blamed for the U.S. Skylab space station's premature fall back to Earth in 1979.

Quote:

"I look (at telescopic images of the sun) almost every day, thinking, 'It could be today,' " said David Hathaway, solar physics team leader at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Alabama. He compared it to "waiting for the first sparrow of spring."

"I'm really excited about this (discovery)," said NASA's Hathaway. "It's based on sound physical principles, and it finally answers the 150-year-old question: What causes the sunspot cycle?"

I need to meet this guy, lol.

antoniseb · #4 (**permalink**) 20-March-2006, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dennis Helander

Ice ages were caused by decreased solar activity.

I wasn't aware that this had been demonstrated. You have some evidence or research you can point to that says this? Actually, if you do, there are some global warming threads in general science you should use, not this one.

BTW, Welcome to the BAUT forum.

Galileo · #5 (**permalink**) 06-May-2007, 05:10 PM

I believe that the next solar max will be around 2012. It will be a big one, so perhaps there will be a giant solar flare, that actually hits the Earth as fire. That is when the Mayans predicted the end of some civilizations on Earth, right?

01101001 · #6 (**permalink**) 06-May-2007, 05:31 PM

Welcome to the BAUT Forum.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galileo

That is when the Mayans predicted the end of some civilizations on Earth, right?

No.

Details among these topics:

Any truth to this?
2012?
Earth's Magnetic Field & 2012 Plane of the ecliptic of the galaxy?
Galactic Tsunami?
So what will we see in 2012?
2012: What do you think well happen (if anything)
Horizon Project-New End of World Scare?
Pole shift idea origins
2003 no, 2012 si
2012
Pole shift / Planetary alignment 2012?
2012 alignment question
about the Mayan 2012 item
2012 Debunking?
Possible asteroid impact in 2012?
2012 asteroid?
We don't have to worry about 2012!
More on 2012 from India Daily
2012 Completion of conspiracy?
Here's what's REALLY going to happen in 2012...
crop circles, Planet X and 2012
Planet X, crop circles and 2012 cataclysma
According to the Mayans, what will happen on 23rd Dec. 2012?
More 2012 Nonsense
NEO 2012?
Dangerous NEO in 2012?
Christmas 2012
2012 mayan calender end of world
Regarding the supposed polar shift/new ice age in 2012
New 2012 threat?
2012 look at this thing on the sun
Russian Expert Predicts Global Cooling from 2012
Dec 20 2012
2012 Stuff
Date: December 21st 2012
Earth passing thru Galactic center in 2012 - didn't that already happen?
2012: What do you think well happen (if anything)

01101001 · #7 (**permalink**) 06-May-2007, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fraser

Solar researchers think they understand the long term cycles of solar activity, and they're predicting that the next Solar Maximum - expected to arrive between 2010 and 2012 - will be the strongest in 50 years.

The Next Solar Maximum the Smallest in 100 Years?

Quote:

The latest [March 2005] research results by Drs. Leif Svalgaard, Yohsuke Kamide at the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University (Japan) and Edward W. Cliver at the Space Vehicles Directorate, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom Air Force Base (Massachusetts) suggest that the Sun may be less active during the next solar cycle than it has been during the last 100 years.

Take your pick.

cbacba · #8 (**permalink**) 06-May-2007, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dennis Helander

Ice ages were caused by decreased solar activity. I wonder if global warming caused more by increased solor activity than by carbon dioxide. Any one have an opinion?

I'm sure most have an opinion. Mine is that the concept or fairly new science of cosmoclimatology holds the key. THere's info on the web about it and plenty of info about a number of people involved. Some of the best general introduction on the web I've seen comes from a researcher named Shaviv.

Blob · #9 (**permalink**) 25-May-2007, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Plasma astrophysicists at the University of Warwick have found that key information about the Sun’s 'storm season’ is being broadcast across the solar system in a fractal snapshot imprinted in the solar wind. This research opens up new ways of looking at both space weather and the unstable behaviour that affects the operation of fusion powered power plants.
Fractals, mathematical shapes that retain a complex but similar patterns at different magnifications, are frequently found in nature from snowflakes to trees and coastlines. Now Plasma Astrophysicists in the University of Warwick’s Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics have devised a new method to detect the same patterns in the solar wind.

Palomar · #10 (**permalink**) 25-May-2007, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fraser

SUMMARY: We've now reached the Sun's solar minimum; there's not a sunspot anywhere across the surface of our closest star. Give it a few years, though, and it should be anything but quiet. Solar researchers think they understand the long term cycles of solar activity, and they're predicting that the next Solar Maximum - expected to arrive between 2010 and 2012 - will be the strongest in 50 years.

Oh goody!

Will have to get a solar telescope for sure. Yeah, I know increased 'spots = increased flares, resultant havoc on satellites, power grids, etc., but sorry -- I'm still looking forward to an active, brisk maximum.

The minimum seems to have dragged on for quite a while now. The other day the 'spot count was up in the 40s or 50s, which was very surprising. But it quickly dropped back down to zero.

I enjoy Galileo's sunspot sketches. There's an animation of those sketches combined somewhere on the 'net. He recorded huge chains of sunspots, the likes of which I'd love to see.

cbacba · #11 (**permalink**) 26-May-2007, 12:28 AM

polomar,

If you really want to get the max out this one - you need to take up amateur radio as another hobby. In this area, 80%+ of the people seriously interested in amateur astronomy are amateur radio operators also.

Blob · #12 (**permalink**) 26-May-2007, 06:19 PM

@Palomar
Yes the sun is currently blank, however, the large Sunspot 10957 (?) will emerge over the Suns eastern limb in a few days time.
Being a Jedi, i sense that it could be a big one...stay tuned....

Palomar · #13 (**permalink**) 26-May-2007, 06:46 PM

Quote:

polomar,

If you really want to get the max out this one - you need to take up amateur radio as another hobby. In this area, 80%+ of the people seriously interested in amateur astronomy are amateur radio operators also

Wow. Well, I'll certainly consider it; thanks for the tip. Spaceweather.com often hosts radio recordings; a gentleman from a nearby city makes recordings from his amateur set of meteor showers (daytime activity), solar flares, etc., which he submits to spaceweather.com.

Quote:

@Palomar
Yes the sun is currently blank, however, the large Sunspot 10957 (?) will emerge over the Suns eastern limb in a few days time.
Being a Jedi, i sense that it could be a big one...stay tuned....

Thanks for the heads-up and give Obi-Wan my regards.

Tucson_Tim · #14 (**permalink**) 28-May-2007, 11:25 PM

I just saw the documentary film Solarmax, which was about the last solar maximum. Pretty good film, about 45 mins, but beacuse it was an IMAX film, there isn't a lot of hard science.

01101001 · #15 (**permalink**) 26-July-2007, 02:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fraser

[2006 March 13] SUMMARY: We've now reached the Sun's solar minimum; there's not a sunspot anywhere across the surface of our closest star.

Or... perhaps now, July 2007, we've reached solar minimum.

NASA News: The Sun Loses its Spots

Quote:

While sidewalks crackle in the summer heat, NASA scientists are keeping a close eye on the sun. It is almost spotless, a sign that the Sun may have reached solar minimum. Scientists are now watching for the first spot of the new solar cycle to appear.

Kevn · #16 (**permalink**) 27-July-2007, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbacba

polomar,

If you really want to get the max out this one - you need to take up amateur radio as another hobby. In this area, 80%+ of the people seriously interested in amateur astronomy are amateur radio operators also.

ARO here!! Plus, I can't wait for a big solar max. Many more chances for me to shoot more award-winning aurora images.

cbacba · #17 (**permalink**) 30-July-2007, 11:48 PM

well, considering 10 meters was wide open yesterday (well somewhat) in the middle of this quiet minima summer, it's definitely gonna be a big one. If it isn't, it's gonna be a big fiz so it's gonna be big no matter what, big cycle or big fiz.

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version Email this Page	Search this Thread: Advanced Search
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode